Many readers of the federal budget will have missed the decision to shut down the National Council of Welfare, a small and independent-minded unit of the Government of Canada that since 1962 has been a source of information about the extent and depth of poverty and inadequate social provision in Canada. With its demise, a resource for advocacy on social determinants of health has been lost. It is still possible to use the Council's site to access an interactive map showing that (for example) inflation-adjusted social assistance incomes in Ontario are no higher than they were in 1986. And the ground-breaking 2011 study on The Dollars and Sense of Solving Poverty is still available. To quote just one provocative finding from its summary: "The poverty gap in Canada in 2007—the money it would have taken to bring everyone just over the poverty line—was $12.3 billion. The total cost of poverty that year was double or more using the most cautious estimates," although these are admittedly incomplete and fragmentary. The public health community would be well advised to act fast and download the Council's publications before they are consigned to the memory hole.
Another disturbing set of findings about economic insecurity comes from the latest annual survey of Canadian family finances (families of two or more people) from the Vanier Institute of the Family. Some of the study's findings will be familiar: for instance, after-tax income of the poorest 20 percent of Canadian families (two or more people) rose by just 19 percent between 1990 and 2009; the incomes of the richest 20 percent rose by 35 percent. We know from other studies that the trend toward increasing inequality is even more extreme when we look only at the top one percent of the Canadian income distribution: 246,000 people with an average income in 2007 of $404,000 who accounted for 32 percent of all the growth in incomes between 1997 and 2007.
Other Vanier findings are less familiar, and more disturbing. For instance, Canada's official unemployment rate in early 2012 would have been 9 percent, rather than 7.6 percent, if the participation rate had been as high as before the recession; 'discouraged workers' who have given up the search for work are not counted as unemployed. And although the overall insolvency rate (bankruptcies and proposals to creditors per 100,000 population) dropped slightly in 2010 and 2011, insolvencies among people aged 55-64 increased by almost 600 percent between 1990 and 2010. Among people over 65 they rose by 1747 percent. This suggests that one of the signal accomplishments of postwar Canadian social policy, cutting the percentage of poor seniors to one of the lowest in the OECD, may be in danger.
As noted in an earlier posting, addressing the possible consequences for population health of such trends unavoidably raises questions of public health ethics. One approach would be to set up an elegant prospective epidemiological study, wait 10 or 15 years, and hope that the casualties, their survivors, or someone are still interested in the answers. Another approach, adopted by the Commission on Social Determinants of Health, is to act on what we now know or can presume with a high degree of confidence, drawing on various sources of evidence and research traditions. So far, our political leaders – and, it must be said, a few of our public health colleagues – seem more interested in punishing the poor and economically insecure, or just ignoring them, than in equalizing opportunities to lead healthy lives. Inequality trends are important for many reasons, but one is that they give the lie to claims that such equalization is unaffordable.